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Saturday, December 09, 2023

Why economists are at war over inequality | Vladimir Putin to Seek Another Term as Russian President | Hackers Rig Casino Card-Shuffling Machines for ‘Full Control’ Cheating | You Can Do This 10-Minute Workout at Home With No Equipment

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Why economists are at war over inequality - The Economist   

According to a familiar saying, academic disputes are so vicious precisely because the stakes are so low. But in a scholarly battle over inequality, the stakes are rather higher. Research by a trio of French economists—Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman—has popularised the notion that American income inequality is soaring. Other economists have built heaps of research upon these findings, while politicians have pledged to undo the trends through higher taxes and spending. To most people the phrase “inequality is rising” seems self-evidently true.

Others have cast doubt on the trio’s findings, however—notably Gerald Auten of the Treasury Department and David Splinter of the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan group in Congress. We first analysed their work in 2019, as part of a cover story. It modifies the French trio’s methodology and comes to a very different conclusion: American post-tax income inequality has hardly risen at all since the 1960s. In the past few days the Journal of Political Economy (JPE), one of the discipline’s most prestigious outlets, has accepted their paper for publication.

You might think that analysing trends in income inequality would be straightforward. Don’t people’s tax returns tell researchers all they need to know? But although tax returns are useful, they can mislead. Americans who are partners in a company, or hold investments, often have enough trouble estimating their own income. Now imagine trying to estimate the incomes of millions of people over several decades, accounting for overhauls to the tax code. Researchers then need to account for the 30-40% of national income that is not even reported on tax returns—including some employer-provided benefits and government welfare. Researchers’ methodological choices have huge effects on the results.

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Hackers Rig Casino Card-Shuffling Machines for 'Full Control' Cheating - WIRED   

In September last year, a scandal blew up the world of high-stakes, livestreamed poker: In a hand at Los Angeles' Hustler Live Casino, which broadcast its games on YouTube, a relative novice holding nothing but a jack of clubs and a four of hearts successfully called the bluff of a veteran player. No one could possibly think that poor hand might be good enough to call a bluff, thousands of outraged poker players argued, unless the person holding it had some extra knowledge that her opponent's hand was even worse—in other words, she must have been cheating.

Three months later, Hustler Live Casino published a postmortem of its investigation into the incident, finding "no credible evidence" of foul play. It also noted that if there were cheating, it was most likely some sort of secret communication between the player and a staff member in the production booth who could see the players' hands in real time. But when Joseph Tartaro, a researcher and consultant with security firm IOActive, read that report, he zeroed in on one claim in particular—a statement ruling out any possibility that the automated card-shuffling machine used at the table, a device known as the Deckmate, could have been hacked. "The Deckmate shuffling machine is secure and cannot be compromised," the report read.

To Tartaro, regardless of what happened in the Hustler Live hand, that assertion of the shuffler's perfect security was an irresistible invitation to prove otherwise. "At that point, it's a challenge," Tartaro says. "Let's look at one of these things and see how realistic it really is to cheat."

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