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Friday, May 12, 2017

May 12, 2017 - Bank reforms make India best equity story in emerging markets: Chris Wood

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Sree Vijaykumar
Sree Vijaykumar
From the Editor's Desk
A group of Indian startup founders recently visited China, and returned awed and inspired and imagined this to be India in the future. Let's examine this future. India's reported GDP last year is $2.07 trillion and that of China is $10.87 trillion. In the future, if we average 10% GDP growth in India and assume China does an average of 4% GDP growth (an optimistic 'India catching up with China' scenario), India will then match China's GDP figures in 2046. And that's the optimistic scenario for India! If we use a more realistic 7% for India and 6% for China, suffice it to say we won't catch up in this century. While it's fine to be inspired by the China model (there's merit in some arguments around consumer behaviour being more similar between India and China than let's say between India and the US), any other comparison needs to account for the reality that there is very little similarity in per-capita purchasing power (the populations are nearly the same now) and other metrics important to predict the size of a market.

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